Pour appuyer l'observation de Phil sur les options de RIM, un article de Bloomberg montre une tendance bullish auprès des traders pour le titre de RIM. Ils anticipent un gain d'au moins 31% pour les 5 prochaines semaines.
Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Dec 9 2009 0:01:00
RIM Bulls Bet on 31% Rally as BlackBerry Maker Expands in China
By Jeff Kearns and Hugo Miller
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are snapping up options on
Research In Motion Ltd., betting the shares will climb 31
percent in five weeks as sales in China accelerate.
Investors buying contracts to purchase RIM for $80 through
Jan. 15 helped drive bullish contracts on the stock to twice the
level of bearish ones, the highest ratio since March 2006,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The last time so-called
calls outnumbered puts by as much, shares of the Waterloo,
Ontario-based BlackBerry maker quadrupled in 19 months.
Traders are speculating RIM will rebound from a 26 percent
decline since the company forecast sales in September that were
below analysts’ estimates, said Nick Agostino, an analyst at
Research Capital Corp. in Toronto who has recommended the shares
for more than three years. RIM is expanding distribution in
China and its BlackBerry Curve surpassed Cupertino, California-
based Apple Inc.’s iPhone as the top-selling consumer smart
phone last quarter, helped by price cuts.
“People are realizing the haircut the stock has taken
since the last quarter was overdone,“ Agostino said. “People
were looking for further deterioration in the business model,
and what they’re seeing recently from sales channels is signs of
what could be a stable quarter.”
The stock must rise 31 percent from yesterday’s close of
$61.16 in U.S. trading to reach the so-called strike price on
the January $80 contracts. Calls give the right to buy shares
for a given price through a certain date, while puts convey the
right to sell. RIM hasn’t closed above $80 since September.
Lower Than Estimated
Shares of RIM have fallen since the company said Sept. 24
that revenue for the three-month period that ended Nov. 28 would
be as low as $3.6 billion, less than the average analyst
projection of $3.91 billion, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
January $80 calls have more than doubled since Dec. 4 to
96,650 contracts, the highest so-called open interest for RIM
options. That’s the steepest rise among the company’s options
during the past two weeks, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg and Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of
market analytics.
The company said yesterday that it will sell a BlackBerry
customized for China and partner with an affiliate of Lenovo
Group Ltd. to increase business in the world’s biggest mobile-
phone market. On Dec. 7, RIM reached an agreement to expand
distribution through Digital China Holdings Ltd. Both Lenovo and
Digital China are based in Hong Kong.
‘Growth Potential’
“That has shown people there is international growth
potential in the stock,” Agostino said. RIM gets more than 70
percent of its revenue from North America, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
The RIM options rose 14 percent to 50 cents yesterday.
Trading volume exceeded 25,000 contracts on Dec. 4 and Dec. 7.
“Upside call buying remains the theme,” options
strategists at Susquehanna International Group LLP in Bala
Cynwyd, Pennsylvania, wrote in a Dec. 7 report. “This trading
suggests investors are using these relatively inexpensive calls
in order to position for significant move to the upside in
shares over the coming months.”
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