Économie ...

**Dave** Ven 6 Aoû - 14:26

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°26

Re: Économie ...

Dave Ven 6 Aoû - 14:26

Goldman abaisse ses prévisions pour l'économie.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-capitulates-lowers-gdp-forecast-increase-unemployment-outlook-sees-imminent-qe-lite?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Le marché ne price absolument pas ces niveaux là par contre.

Dave

**Dave** Mar 10 Aoû - 14:31

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°27

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 10 Aoû - 14:31

Grosse journée aujourd'hui, selon moi le marché pricait dejà une intervention de la Fed (quantitative easing) beaucoup de rumeurs depuis 2 semaines. On va le savoir cette après midi !

Dave

Rosenberg place le Canada en perspective par rapport aux States aujourd'hui, quand on se compare, on est pas si mal.

https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Lunch_with_Dave_081010.pdf

**Dave** Mar 10 Aoû - 17:45

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°28

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 10 Aoû - 17:45

Yield sur les bonds baissent (10 ans cad et 10 ans US) et le marché a monté.

Les bonds n'achètent pas le 'rally' des stocks. Drôle de marché

**Dave** Lun 23 Aoû - 11:12

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°29

Re: Économie ...

Dave Lun 23 Aoû - 11:12

Hussman de cette semaine, point de vue intéressant sur le taux de change US.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100823.htm

**Dave** Lun 23 Aoû - 17:19

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°30

Re: Économie ...

Dave Lun 23 Aoû - 17:19

Le yield des bonds 10 ans canada a fortement diminué. Quand le prix des bonds montent, les stocks baissent. (Ces temps-ci les stocks laggent un peu).

Watch out.

Dave

**Dave** Mar 24 Aoû - 11:58

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°31

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 24 Aoû - 11:58

Ca continue today, le yield des bonds 10 ans canada tombe de 2% a matin.

Dave

**Dave** Mar 24 Aoû - 14:04

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°32

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 24 Aoû - 14:04

POMO vous dit de quoi ? La Fed qui achète directement sur le marché.

Dave

**Dave** Lun 30 Aoû - 12:19

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°33

Re: Économie ...

Dave Lun 30 Aoû - 12:19

Lu sur The Big Picture:

I really liked this quote from Felix Zulauf’s August commentary:

“Hence, the key question is not double dip or not but how good will economic growth be in real and nominal terms.

When an economy shows the weakest recovery on record despite of the biggest monetary and fiscal stimuli on record, something is definitely different from previous cycles. In our view, it is debt deleveraging. So far, the US consumer and financial institutions have undertaken steps and decreased leverage to some degree but we are nowhere near the end of this process. At the very best, it will take another 2 years but most likely longer until that process is complete.

In the meantime, household income growth or the lack thereof will become the decisive factor. At present, it does not look very encouraging as it is stagnant in most countries or anemic at best. Moreover, in the US, housing is an important balance sheet item for the average household and those prices continue to erode.

Hence, we do not see a lot of hope for a normal recovery pattern. In Europe, the discussion about retirement age has been launched whereby the proposal is to hike the age limit decisively as mathematically there is no way that these pensions can ever be financed based on demographics and tax revenues in a low growth environment. This blows away many dreams of a relaxed retirement period and forces households to save more . . .”

Interesting stuff.

**Dave** Mar 7 Sep - 12:59

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°34

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 7 Sep - 12:59

Rosenberg est faché a matin:

Finally, you know it’s a depression when, 33 months after the onset of recession...
•
Wages & salaries are still down 3.7% from the prior peak;
•
Corporate profits are still down 20% from the peak;
•
Real GDP is still down 1.3% from the peak;
•
Industrial production is still down 7.2% from the peak;
•
Employment is still down 5.5% from the peak;
•
Retail sales are still down 4.5% from the peak;
•
Manufacturing orders are still down 22.1% from the peak;
•
Manufacturing shipments are still down 12.5% from the peak;
•
Exports are still down 9.2% from the peak;
•
Housing starts are still down 63.5% from the peak;
•
New home sales are still down 68.9% from the peak;
•
Existing home sales are still down 41.2% from the peak;
•
Non-residential construction is still down 35.7% from the peak.
Folks, in a normal recession-recovery cycle, practically all these indicators are making new highs at this juncture of the business cycle. For anyone to go on Bloomberg Radio and lay claim that this is a normal bounce-back in the economy is unarmed but very dangerous.

**Dave** Mar 12 Oct - 14:01

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°35

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 12 Oct - 14:01

Très bon commentaire de Rosenberg aujourd'hui sur la prochaine ronde de Quantitative Easing:

Remember this from the first $1.7 trillion of QE1 — the Fed can print the money, but it can’t control where it goes. If households are deleveraging, corporations are busy squirreling away the nuts for winter and banks hoarding excess reserves for whatever reason, then we could be sitting here six months from now still debating double-dip economic risks. Goldman Sachs only has two economic scenarios — “very bad” (outright recession) or “fairly bad” (sub-2% growth that leads to a further rise in the unemployment rate). Ohayo gosaimaz!

**Dave** Mar 2 Nov - 10:40

Dave

Dave: Admin; Messages : 171
Date d'inscription : 09/07/2009
Age : 37
Localisation : Montréal

Message n°36

Re: Économie ...

Dave Mar 2 Nov - 10:40

Des prédictions sur l'annonce de la Fed demain ?

Sérieusement j'en ai aucune idée mais ça fait un bon moment que les stocks montent donc je crois qu'un bon montant d'aide est déjà pricé.

Dave

Contenu sponsorisé

Contenu sponsorisé

Contenu sponsorisé

Message n°37

Re: Économie ...

Contenu sponsorisé

Rechercher

Résultats par : Messages Sujets
Recherche avancée

Investissements AccèsCible

Économie ...